Thorge (jesiah_blanche) wrote in endgame_larp,

Weather update...

... for those who don't read the forums.

Well, here we go. Let's first see what the NWS says...

NWS Boston wrote:
Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 69.

Friday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Saturday: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 68. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Saturday Night: A chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 57. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Sunday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 74. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Alright, let's get the easy part of the forecast out of the way. It's an Endgame weekend. It's going to rain.

Now the hard part. As mentioned yesterday, there is a component of this rain that could be associated with a tropical system making its way up the Eastern Seaboard and interacting with another low pressure area coming east out of the Great Lakes. All the models have the tropical feature coming up this way. However, they are split on where it goes. A couple of them have the storm tracking much like Bill did last weekend. This would have a set-up like last weekend. The rain from the front gets hug up over Central New England waiting for the tropical cyclone to pass. This would result in scattered, but persistent showers for much of the weekend. (Peterborough had some bad flooding last Saturday when a cell parked itself over the town and produced about 5 inches of rain in 12 hours.)

However, a couple of the models run the system just inland from the Carolinas to New England. A track like this would produce a tremendous amount of rain for everyone very late Saturday night and all day Sunday. There would be some gusty winds as well when the storm passes over Southern New England. (I won't mention here what happens if it splits the difference and pulls a Gloria or Bob. Really, I won't...)

The trick is, the system hasn't really formed yet. It's still a tropical wave northeast of Puerto Rico. The National Hurricane Center is saying there is a very good chance of it becoming a depression in the next 48 hours and will have a recon plane out there today looking at it. Once the system becomes organized into a depression, the models will get a better handle on where it will go, but now it's pretty much a guessing game.

I sense updates will come more often this week than normal.

((X-posted to the Endgame community and my journal.))
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